UK Energy Market Report - 26 October 2026

Gas rises for a third day and winter electricity follows it to record highs, ending a week in which prices climbed by around 7%

Wholesale gas prices rose for a third day running on Friday 23 October, and this time electricity came with them. Every gas contract from November onwards closed at a new high in our daily records, and so did winter and next summer electricity.

Over the week as a whole, this winter’s gas and next summer’s gas both finished around 7% higher than the Friday before. Norway, the Middle East and Asian demand for LNG all kept pressure on prices.

There is one bright spot. Strong wind over the weekend pushed the price of next-day power to a fraction of its usual level. That helps anyone buying power day to day, but it does nothing for fixed contracts, which are priced off the forward market.

Gas Market

The rise on Friday was bigger than on either of the two days before it. November gas gained close to 9p a therm, and December and January moved by about the same. Contracts for next year rose by around half as much, but that was still enough to set new highs.

Our report on Friday 23 October said early trading was higher again, and that held. November gas closed slightly above the level it was trading at on Friday morning. This morning the front of the market is higher again.

Across the week, there was only one down day. On Tuesday 20 October it looked as if prices might be turning, but three straight rises followed. Over the week, this winter finished almost 7% higher and next summer just over 7% higher. The European benchmark has moved above €90/MWh for the first time since late 2022.

Britain was the cheapest of the seven major European gas markets on Friday. That matters, because it keeps cargoes and pipeline gas flowing towards the Continent rather than into Britain, and gas is currently being exported to Belgium.

Electricity Market

Next-day power fell very sharply on Friday for delivery over the weekend, because strong wind was forecast. Imbalance prices still rose above £250/MWh on Sunday evening, which shows how quickly the system tightens when the wind drops after dark. Next-day power is trading back above £100/MWh this morning.

The forward market went the other way. Winter power rose by around £6/MWh, following gas, and November, the first quarter of 2027 and next summer all closed at the highest levels we have recorded. Early trading for November power on Friday morning also held almost exactly.

Nuclear output is weaker again. A long planned outage at Heysham 1 unit 1 began on Sunday 25 October and is set to run into January. It adds to the unplanned cut at Heysham 2 unit 7 from last Thursday and to two other Heysham units already offline. Less nuclear means more gas burned for power, which keeps winter electricity tied to gas prices.

The weather this week looks mild for late October, which should keep heating demand down. Wind is expected to stay steady for the first few days and then ease later in the week, so cheaper next-day power may not last.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent rose about 3% on Friday and ended the week close to a six-month high, after a month of record attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and continued attacks on Saudi Arabia. It eased this morning on hopes that tension between the US and Iran may calm. Asian LNG rose again, so Asia is still competing hard with Europe for winter cargoes. Carbon was flat.

The pound edged up against the euro but slipped against the dollar, which makes dollar-priced oil and LNG slightly more expensive for British buyers.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Britain’s gas storage is about two-thirds full, with Rough still empty, so Britain has less of a cushion than its neighbours. Germany is the lowest major European market at around 60%, while France and Italy are close to 90%.

Norway is still the main worry. Unplanned problems at Sleipner, Oseberg and Asgard are cutting output this morning, on top of planned work. Langeled into Britain picked up, but nothing is coming through the Vesterled and FLAGS route. Britain’s own North Sea output was higher, and demand rose sharply this morning as the working week began.

LNG is a little better. Unloading in Europe recovered on Friday to close to its average for the month, and Britain is taking more LNG than a week ago. Around ten cargoes are due at north-west European terminals today and tomorrow, mostly from the United States. Supply is tight rather than short, but the market has little room for further surprises.

What This Means for Your Business

This winter’s wholesale gas is now close to 8p per kWh and electricity around 18p per kWh, before network costs, levies and supplier margin. Both are the highest levels we have recorded this autumn.

Contracts starting next year are where the damage is building. Next summer’s gas has risen by more than a third since late September. For a business using 500,000 kWh of gas a year, that adds around £8,000 a year to a contract priced off next summer. If your business gas or electricity renews in 2027, get prices in front of you now so you are ready to act if the market dips.

Last week showed how short a dip can be: the fall on Tuesday 20 October was gone within two days. For larger sites, buying in stages over several dates means no single day sets your whole price, and a target price agreed in advance lets you buy on a dip before it closes.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 23 October 2026