UK Energy Market Report - 29 October 2026

Gas and power jump to new highs as Norwegian outages, colder weather and LNG worries hit at once

Wholesale energy prices jumped on Wednesday 28 October. Every gas contract rose by between 4p and 12p a therm, and next-day gas reached 250p a therm. November, December, January, the first quarter of 2027 and next summer all closed at the highest levels in our records.

Electricity followed. Next-day power settled at £213/MWh, and every forward power contract rose, with November baseload up for a sixth session in a row to another new high.

Early trading this morning has taken back most of the move. Winter gas is being marked around 12p a therm lower and next-day power for Friday 30 October is being offered about £11/MWh lower, as wind is forecast to pick up a little on Friday and talks between the US and Iran ease some of the worry in oil markets.

Gas Market

Three things hit the gas market at once on Wednesday. Unplanned outages at two of Norway’s biggest gas processing plants cut supply, forecasts turned colder, and a power cut at the Freeport LNG export plant in the United States took all of it offline. Qatar also extended a halt to some of its LNG deliveries to Italy until the end of the year.

The rise ran right along the curve. Contracts for this winter rose by more than 10p a therm and next summer rose by more than 6p. The main European benchmark, TTF, closed above €100/MWh for the first time since 2022.

Our report on Wednesday 28 October said early trading had pushed winter gas higher, and the market went further than those early levels by the close. This winter’s gas is now around 16% higher than a week ago.

Britain was the third cheapest of seven major European gas markets again on Wednesday, with France and Spain cheaper. Gas is still flowing out to Belgium rather than in.

Electricity Market

Next-day power settled at £213/MWh, exactly the level it was being offered at on Wednesday morning and the highest daily settlement in our records this autumn. With little wind, gas power stations set the price, so the jump in gas fed straight through.

Wind and solar output is forecast to stay well below normal, at around half the usual level for the time of year today, Thursday 29 October, and lower still on Saturday 31 October, before recovering early next week. Power for Friday 30 October is being offered at around £202/MWh this morning.

Imbalance prices, which suppliers pay when they are short of power, reached about £262/MWh on Wednesday evening. Spikes like that are likely to continue until the wind returns.

Forward power rose across the board, by around £7/MWh to £8/MWh for this winter and by around £3.50/MWh for next summer. Nuclear output is still reduced, with several Heysham units and one Hartlepool unit offline or running below capacity. Temperatures are above normal today and Friday, then close to the seasonal average into next week.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Oil, coal, carbon and Asian LNG all rose on Wednesday. Oil has eased this morning after reports that the US is trying to restart talks with Iran, although Iran has rejected the latest proposals.

The pound slipped a little against the euro but gained against the dollar, which takes a small amount off the cost of dollar-priced oil and LNG for British buyers.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Britain’s gas storage is unchanged at around 65% full. Rough is still empty. Europe as a whole is about 75% full, which is low for the end of October and is why the market reacts so sharply to colder forecasts. Germany remains the lowest major market at about 61%, while France and Italy are close to 90%.

Norwegian outages eased this morning and flows through the main Langeled pipeline to Britain rose, but only a little gas is coming in through the Vesterled and FLAGS route. More maintenance at Norway’s Kårstø plant is planned for Friday 30 October. Gas demand in Britain rose again this morning.

LNG unloading is steady. Six cargoes are due at British terminals over the next two weeks, all of them at South Hook in Wales, up from four a day ago. The British system opened long this morning, which helped early prices ease.

What This Means for Your Business

This winter’s wholesale gas is now around 8.5p per kWh and electricity close to 20p per kWh, before network costs, levies and supplier margin. Both are the highest levels we have recorded this autumn.

Next year has moved too. Next summer’s gas is up by more than 40% since late September. For a business using 500,000 kWh of gas a year, that adds around £9,100 a year to a contract priced off next summer. Electricity for next summer has risen far less, so if you have a power contract renewing in 2027, check today’s business electricity prices against your current rate.

This morning’s fall shows how quickly prices are swinging, by more than 10p a therm in a single day. A target price agreed in advance lets you act on a dip like this one. A flexible buying strategy lets you buy in stages, so no single day decides your whole price.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 28 October 2026