UK Energy Market Report - 3 August 2026

NBP softens across the curve as wind and solar push gas out of the stack, while UK baseload power firms at every point on a heavy August nuclear outage schedule.

Gas and power have parted company this morning. Both markets have rolled into Sep-26 as the new front month, and where NBP has softened across almost the whole curve, UK baseload power has firmed at every point out to Win-28.

The split is a supply story rather than a demand one. Strong wind and elevated solar are pushing gas out of the generation stack, while a heavy run of nuclear outages through August is doing the opposite to power.

Here is what UK business energy buyers need to know today.

Gas Market

NBP Day-Ahead settled at 142.00 p/therm on 31 July, up 0.75p or roughly 0.5% on the session. Friday’s move was firm right along the curve, with Sep-26 adding 1.81p to 144.28p and Q4-26 gaining 1.51p to 146.90p.

This morning has gone the other way. By the 09:25 update, Day-Ahead was indicated a penny lower at 141.00p, with Sep-26 down 1.95p and Oct-26 off 1.85p. Only the far end held, with Win-28 up 1.75p on very thin volume.

The UK system opened 13 mcm/day long. Stronger wind speeds alongside elevated solar output are cutting gas-for-power demand, which is forecast to fall by 7 mcm/day on the day-ahead, and system demand has already eased to 125.2 mcm/day.

Norwegian supply is the swing factor. GASSCO has nominated total exit flows of 326.9 mcm/day, down from 329.2 mcm/day on Friday, and exports to the UK specifically are 3 mcm/day lower. Langeled alone dropped 4.5 mcm/day to 52.8 mcm/day.

LNG remains the weak leg. Total UK sendout is nominated 2 mcm/day lower, and European LNG arrivals across July came in at 8.91 bcm, around 18% below June and 28% below July 2025.

Britain continues to trade at a discount to the continent, with NBP at 142.00p against TTF at 146.34p, THE at 147.28p and Italian PSV at 157.75p. That spread keeps gas flowing out rather than in, and the UK exported roughly 34.7 mcm/day to Belgium through IUK and 16.0 mcm/day to the Netherlands through BBL on the day.

Linepack still built, closing 2.37 mcm higher at 349.3 mcm, so the length is real rather than a nominations artefact.

The curve shape still tells the real story for buyers. Win-26 sits at 143.31p while Sum-27 trades at 93.39p and Win-27 at 92.74p, a step down of roughly 50p per therm once you clear this coming winter.

The card below summarises where NBP contracts closed against the previous session.

Electricity Market

UK Day-Ahead baseload settled at 108.19 £/MWh on 31 July, a fall of 23.98 £/MWh or just over 18% on the day. Day-Ahead peak dropped harder still, down 40.17 £/MWh to 81.27 £/MWh, as wind and solar squeezed the evening premium out of the market.

The weekend went further. Minimum System Sell Price on 2 August touched minus 6.49 £/MWh at 14:49, with 1 August bottoming at 9.99 £/MWh, both in the middle of the solar peak. Balancing has stayed volatile at the other end, with maximum System Buy Price hitting 198.00 £/MWh at 06:18 this morning.

Forward power tells a different story. Every baseload contract from Sep-26 to Win-28 is indicated higher this morning, with Nov-26 up 3.39 £/MWh to 130.75 and Sum-28 up 2.22 £/MWh to 66.00.

Nuclear availability is a large part of that. Hartlepool 2 comes off for 16 days from 7 August, Heysham 1 for 15 days from 17 August and Torness 1 for 17 days from 21 August, taking close to 1.9 GW of baseload cover out of the stack in succession.

Weather is set to turn as well. Wind generation peaks on Wednesday before easing back below seasonal norms, and the UK 46-day forecast shows temperatures peaking over the coming days then falling sharply to below seasonal normal ahead of the weekend.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent M+1 settled at 90.12 $/barrel on 31 July, up 1.09 or around 1.2% on the day. That firmness has not carried into today’s session.

President Trump has said talks with Iran will take place on Monday without setting a deadline, following his decision to call off an imminent strike in the hope of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil has moved lower this morning as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough have grown.

Carbon was flat to marginally softer. EUA Dec-26 slipped 0.03 to €81.26 and UK ETS Dec-26 eased 0.15 to £59.09, though the UK contract is indicated back up at £59.52 this morning. Coal API2 for Cal-27 added 0.63 to $124.91/tonne.

Sterling firmed on both crosses, ending Friday at 1.1686 against the euro and 1.3480 against the dollar, which trims the sterling cost of euro-denominated gas and carbon.

Commodity	Price	Change (day)
Brent Crude (M+1)	$90.12/barrel	+1.2%
Coal API2 (Cal-27)	$124.91/tonne	+0.5%
EUA Carbon (Dec-26)	€81.26/tonne	-0.04%
UK ETS (Dec-26)	£59.09/tonne	-0.3%
JKM LNG (front-month)	$21.45/MMBtu	+0.3%
TTF Gas (day-ahead)	€58.35/MWh	-0.2%

Storage and Supply Outlook

EU gas storage stood at 57.11% full at the end of gas day 2 August, roughly 11 percentage points behind the same point last year.

The refill pace is the concern rather than the absolute level. Injections averaged around 2.4 TWh/day through July, about 20% below the rate seen in July 2025, and weak LNG arrivals leave little slack to catch up before the heating season.

UK site storage is patchy. South Hook sits at 84% and Stublach at 71%, but Hornsea is only 34% full and both Rough and Humbly Grove are recorded at zero, leaving Britain heavily dependent on Norwegian pipeline flows and prompt LNG through the winter.

What This Means for Your Business

The headline number is misleading today. A Day-Ahead power price of 108 £/MWh, and a weekend that briefly went negative, says nothing useful about what you will pay on a two or three year contract, because every forward baseload contract moved up this morning.

If you are renewing soon, the near curve is where the pressure sits. Sep-26 through Q1-27 baseload is indicated higher across the board and 1.9 GW of nuclear comes off through August, so anyone looking to fix an electricity supply in the next few weeks is buying into a firming market, not a falling one.

Gas buyers have the opposite problem, and it is a better one. The 50p per therm gap between Win-26 and Sum-27 means a single fixed price averages an expensive winter across cheaper years. Splitting the volume into tranches lets you take the cheaper back seasons now and leave the winter position open.

The watch items this week are Wednesday’s wind peak, the sharp temperature drop expected before the weekend, and whether Monday’s Iran talks unwind the remaining risk premium in oil.

For a view tailored to your consumption profile and renewal window, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 24 July 2026