UK Energy Market Report - 26 June 2026
UK wholesale gas and electricity market update for 26 June 2026, with NBP prices, day-ahead power, Brent crude and procurement guidance.
UK wholesale energy closed the week a little lower again, with the steady unwind of the Middle East risk premium still setting the tone. Gas has now given back close to a fifth of its value over the past month.
The split between prompt and curve has not gone away. The day-to-day market stays supported by hot, low-wind conditions, while the forward curve keeps drifting as traders lean on a calmer geopolitical backdrop and comfortable supply.
Gas Market
NBP day-ahead eased to around 97.40 p/therm, holding below the 100 mark as the supply-disruption premium continues to bleed out of the market. Front-month Jul-26 slipped to 96.05 p/therm, now down 2.4% on the week.
The driver is unchanged. The US and Iran ceasefire is holding, Strait of Hormuz traffic has normalised, and LNG shipping confidence has recovered. With the threat of escalation fading, the war premium keeps leaving the curve.
Fundamentals remain comfortable. Norwegian flows are strong, north-west European supply is ample for the time of year, and storage keeps building through injection season. Asian JKM is still firm enough to pull the odd flexible cargo east, but the UK system is well supplied.
The back of the curve softened in step. Winter-26 eased to 102.40 p/therm and Cal-27 slipped to 84.70 p/therm, with the forwards still shedding premium faster than the prompt.
| Contract | Price (p/therm) | Change (week) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead | 97.40 | ▼ 1.8% |
| Jul-26 | 96.05 | ▼ 2.4% |
| Q3-26 | 96.90 | ▼ 2.2% |
| Winter-26 | 102.40 | ▼ 1.7% |
| Cal-27 (long-dated) | 84.70 | ▼ 1.3% |
Electricity Market
Day-ahead baseload eased to near £112/MWh, coming off the week’s highs as softer gas and oil fed through and strong solar capped daytime prices. Wind stayed weak, leaving gas plant to do much of the work.
Solar carried the midday load again, holding prices down through the peak. The tighter moment came on the evening ramp, when panels dropped off and the system leaned back on gas and imports.
French nuclear output remains sensitive to the heat, trimming the interconnector cushion the UK often draws on. Even so, easing fuel costs were enough to pull the prompt lower by the close.
The forward curve stayed calm. Summer-27 baseload sits near £74/MWh, well under the prompt, tracking the slide in gas rather than the week’s weather.
Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities
Crude resumed its slide. Brent eased 1.1% to $74.43 a barrel, while WTI fell harder, down nearly 3% to $69.62 and back below the $70 mark, as the easing in Hormuz shipping fears and the prospect of more barrels returning kept pressure on the market.
European carbon was softer too, with EUA allowances off 0.75% to just under €80 a tonne. TTF gas slipped 0.95% to around €41.20/MWh, sitting near the lower end of its recent range.
| Commodity | Price | Change (day) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $74.43/barrel | -1.11% |
| WTI | $69.62/barrel | -2.92% |
| EUA Carbon (Dec-26) | €79.60/tonne | -0.75% |
| JKM LNG (front-month) | $11.65/MMBtu | — |
| TTF Gas (front-month) | €41.20/MWh | -0.95% |
Storage and Supply Outlook
EU gas storage keeps refilling through injection season, sitting comfortably above 60% and climbing as cheaper gas encourages buyers to build stock ahead of next winter.
With Norwegian supply running well and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe steady, the supply side looks well covered. The main swing factors from here are summer weather, the pace of storage injections, and whether the calmer geopolitical backdrop holds.
On the policy front, Ofgem continues to weigh changes to gas grid charging aimed at making the UK a more attractive route for LNG transiting on to Europe.
What This Means for Your Business
The gap between a firm prompt and a softer forward curve is again the key takeaway. If you are buying short-term flexible volume, the day-to-day market is being driven by heat and wind rather than the wider trend, so timing matters.
For businesses weighing longer fixed terms, the steady drift lower in Winter-26 and Cal-27 is the more meaningful signal. The premium that built up through early June is still coming out of the forwards, which keeps a window open worth watching.
A single geopolitical headline could put that premium straight back in, which is exactly why a deliberate buying strategy beats reacting to the news. To review your position and build an approach that fits your risk profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.
Previous report: UK Energy Market Report – 25 June 2026