UK Energy Market Report - 27 October 2026

Gas rises for a fourth day and sets new highs again, while falling wind later this week puts next-day power back on the rise

Wholesale gas prices rose for a fourth trading day in a row on Monday 26 October. Every gas contract from November onwards closed at a new high in our daily records, and winter and next summer electricity did the same.

The push came from three directions at once: Norwegian supply problems, the end of the weekend’s strong wind, and a stronger pull on LNG cargoes from Asia. Over the past week, this winter’s gas is up almost 10% and winter electricity by around 12%.

Early trading this morning is a little calmer, with the front of the gas market slightly lower. But wind is forecast to fall well below normal from Thursday, and next-day power is already being offered at a much higher price for Wednesday.

Gas Market

The biggest move on Monday was in next-day gas, which jumped by more than 10p a therm as the windy weekend ended and more gas was needed for power stations. November, December and January all rose by around 7p a therm, and next year’s contracts by around half that. All of them set new highs.

Our report on Monday 26 October said early trading was higher again, and that held: November gas closed slightly above the level it was trading at that morning. This morning November is trading a little lower, which is the first sign of a pause since Tuesday 20 October.

Since that one down day on Tuesday 20 October, the market has gone up for four sessions without a break. The European benchmark is now close to €97/MWh, and front-month contracts across Europe are at their highest for several years.

Britain was again the cheapest of the seven major European gas markets on Monday, by a small margin. That keeps gas flowing out to Belgium rather than in, and means Britain has to pay up to attract LNG cargoes when it needs them.

Electricity Market

Next-day power almost tripled on Monday as the strong weekend wind faded, though it settled well below the levels of last week. It is the outlook that matters more. Wind and solar output is forecast to drop to around half its normal level from Thursday, and power for Wednesday delivery is being offered above £180/MWh this morning. Short periods of very high imbalance prices are likely while the wind stays low.

The forward market rose again, led by winter. November baseload gained around £9/MWh and is now up by about 12% in a week, faster than gas. The first quarter of 2027 and next summer also closed at the highest levels we have recorded. Early trading for November on Monday morning held close to where it settled.

Nuclear output remains weak. Heysham 1 unit 1 is on a short planned outage now and is due to go into a longer one from Friday 30 October, running into January. Three other Heysham units are already offline. Less nuclear and less wind means more gas burned for power, which keeps winter electricity tied tightly to gas prices.

Temperatures are still above normal for late October but are drifting down towards the seasonal average by early next week, so heating demand will start to build.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent eased slightly on Monday but stayed close to a six-month high. It turned higher again this morning: talks in Tehran have eased fears of a wider Middle East supply shock, but renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia keep the risk alive. Asian LNG rose again, so competition with Europe for winter cargoes is still strong. Carbon rose by just over 2% in both the EU and UK schemes, which adds a little to the cost of gas-fired power.

The pound slipped against both the euro and the dollar, which makes imported gas, LNG and oil slightly more expensive for British buyers.

Storage and Supply Outlook

Britain’s gas storage has dipped to around 65% full, with Rough still empty. Germany remains the lowest major market at about 61%, while France and Italy are close to 90%. With colder days ahead, Europe is expected to start drawing on storage, and that is part of what is supporting winter prices.

Norway is still the main concern. Unplanned problems at Sleipner, Oseberg and Asgard are cutting output again this morning, on top of planned work across the network. Langeled into Britain picked up, but nothing is coming through the Vesterled and FLAGS route, and Britain’s own North Sea output slipped. The British system opened short this morning.

LNG unloading into Britain eased slightly. Around ten cargoes are due at north-west European terminals over the next few days, most of them from the United States. Supply is tight rather than short, but with low wind ahead, the market has little room for further surprises.

What This Means for Your Business

This winter’s wholesale gas is now just over 8p per kWh and electricity close to 19p per kWh, before network costs, levies and supplier margin. Both are the highest levels we have recorded this autumn.

The bigger concern is next year. Next summer’s gas has risen by around 40% since late September. For a business using 500,000 kWh of gas a year, that adds close to £8,800 a year to a contract priced off next summer. If your business gas or electricity renews in 2027, get prices in front of you now so you can act quickly if the market pulls back.

A pause this morning is not a turn. For larger sites, buying in stages over several dates means no single day sets your whole price, and a target price agreed in advance lets you buy on a dip before it closes.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 26 October 2026