UK Energy Market Report - 5 October 2026

Every gas contract rises and the power forwards follow, Britain’s discount to the Dutch hub narrows by 2.90p, and day-ahead power is offered £19.55 higher as the wind drops

The 2 October session ended the week with the gas curve higher from end to end. All eleven NBP contracts settled up. Day-ahead gained 5.00p, or 2.83%, to 181.50 p/therm, and Nov-26, the front month, rose 1.57p to 188.10p, its highest close since the 190.71p of 24 September.

Power split again at the front. Day-ahead baseload slipped £2.45 to £151.95/MWh and day-ahead peak fell £7.03 to £148.00, while every baseload forward rose, led by Jan-27, up £2.02 to £162.49. Across the gas, baseload and peak boards, 30 of the 33 contracts settled higher.

Over the week the winter is clearly dearer. Against the 25 September close, Nov-26 gas is up 5.06p, Q1-27 gas 5.30p and Q1-27 baseload £5.31. This morning the weather takes over: the weekend’s imbalance prices touched £0.00 at their lowest, wind output is forecast to fall by more than half for 6 October, and at 09:21 day-ahead baseload is offered at £171.50, £19.55 above its settlement.

Gas Market

Every NBP contract settled higher on 2 October. Day-ahead rose 5.00p to 181.50p, Nov-26 1.57p to 188.10p, Dec-26 1.71p to 190.11p, Jan-27 1.82p to 191.11p and Q1-27 2.15p to 186.98p.

Further out the gains grew rather than faded. Q2-27 added 2.43p to 142.62p, Summer-27 2.49p to 137.00p and Winter-27 2.70p to 131.53p, the largest move on the board after day-ahead. Summer-28 rose 1.94p to 86.39p, Winter-28 1.69p to 93.39p and Summer-29 0.78p to 72.00p.

Because day-ahead rose more than three times as far as the front month, the gap at the front of the curve closed sharply. Nov-26 now stands 6.60p above day-ahead, against 10.03p a session earlier. The gap between this winter and next narrowed slightly, with Q1-27 55.45p above Winter-27 against 56.00p.

On the week the whole curve is higher. Against the 25 September close, day-ahead is up 2.20p, Nov-26 5.06p, Dec-26 5.03p, Q1-27 5.30p, Summer-27 5.72p and Winter-27 4.06p. Nov-26 has settled at 190.71p, 183.04p, 185.63p, 176.53p, 183.08p, 186.53p and 188.10p over the last seven sessions, and now sits 2.61p below the 24 September high.

Commentary puts the support down to storage concerns, geopolitical uncertainty and a firmer winter risk premium, with European storage around 72% full and well below a year earlier, while mild weather across northwest Europe held demand down. It describes November gas as closing near 189p, up about 2.5%. The settlement table has Nov-26 at 188.10p, up 0.84%, and the table figures are used here.

Britain rose further than any continental hub. NBP’s 5.00p gain compares with 2.36p at Italy’s PSV, 2.35p at Germany’s THE, 2.10p at the Dutch TTF, 1.66p at Austria’s VTP and 0.39p at France’s PEG, while Spain’s PVB fell 5.53p to 179.93p. NBP’s discount to TTF narrowed to 5.47p from 8.37p.

That ends Britain’s single session as the cheapest of the seven hubs tracked here. PVB is now cheapest, PEG second at 181.42p and NBP third, just 0.08p above PEG and 1.57p above PVB. Exports to Belgium through IUK, which commentary had linked to Britain’s wider discount, have eased: 9.10 mcm/day at 07:00 this morning, against 14.70 at 07:00 on 2 October.

The gas marks have now pointed the wrong way two sessions running: on 1 October it was the day-ahead, on 2 October the forwards. At 09:32 on 2 October the front of the curve was indicated 4p to 5p lower, and it settled 1.6p to 2.2p higher. Nov-26 was marked at 181.71p and settled at 188.10p, 6.39p above, and Q1-27 was marked at 180.80p against a settlement of 186.98p. Day-ahead was marked at 176.98p and settled 4.52p higher.

At 09:21 this morning the front is again marked a little lower: day-ahead at 181.25p, down 0.25p, Nov-26 at 186.99p, down 1.11p, and Q1-27 at 186.25p, down 0.73p. Q2-27 is marked 1.43p higher at 144.05p, Summer-27 1.75p higher at 138.75p and Winter-27 0.77p higher at 132.30p. The Summer-28 and Summer-29 indications imply jumps of 8.61p and 7.45p, far beyond anything those contracts settled, so the 2028 and 2029 marks are not quoted. After the last two sessions, build nothing on the direction of any of these marks.

Norwegian supply is back near full rates after the maintenance season. Commentary puts nominations from the Norwegian Continental Shelf at 331.6 mcm/day on 2 October and flows at 329.9 mcm/day this morning, despite an unplanned outage at Heidrun cutting 5.8 mcm/day. Gassco described this year’s maintenance as having “shorter and fewer production stoppages” than in previous years.

On the 07:00 read Langeled is delivering 69.00 mcm/day, against 66.00 at 07:00 on 2 October, and Vesterled 6.00 against 4.00. Commentary puts total Norwegian pipeline nominations to Britain at 86 mcm/day, up 5 on 2 October. UKCS production is 90.70 mcm/day, up from 88.70, BBL is at zero and LNG send-out is unchanged at 3.20 at Isle of Grain and 5.20 at South Hook. System demand reads 141.94 mcm/day and linepack 362.88 mcm. The system opened 29 mcm/day long, with gas-for-power demand forecast to rise by 30 mcm/day as the wind drops.

Electricity Market

Day-ahead baseload settled at £151.95/MWh on 2 October, down £2.45 or 1.59%, its second fall in a row. Day-ahead peak fell harder, by £7.03 or 4.53% to £148.00, and is back below baseload, by £3.95, after sitting 63p above it a session earlier.

The last seven sessions of day-ahead baseload read £161.23, £130.14, £137.00, £117.67, £160.11, £154.40 and £151.95, a range of £43.56. On the week, day-ahead is £21.81 above the £130.14 of 25 September.

The forward curve rose with gas. Jan-27 baseload gained £2.02 to £162.49, Q1-27 £1.79 to £154.50, Nov-26 £0.74 to £152.94 and Dec-26 £0.73 to £151.13. January’s premium widened again: Jan-27 now stands £9.55 above Nov-26 and £11.36 above Dec-26, against £8.27 and £10.07 a session earlier.

Further out, Q2-27 added £0.84 to £112.29, Summer-27 £0.91 to £107.98 and Winter-27 £1.61 to £109.62. Summer-28 rose £1.62 to £74.44, Winter-28 £1.48 to £82.69 and Summer-29 £0.27 to £68.72. Against the 25 September close, Q1-27 baseload is up £5.31, Dec-26 £3.45, Nov-26 £3.20 and Winter-27 £3.27.

On the peak board Nov-26 was the only forward to fall, by 16p to £178.94, which leaves it 17.0% above Nov-26 baseload. Winter-27 peak gained most, £2.44 to £129.18, with Jan-27 peak up £1.74 to £188.99 and Q1-27 peak £1.71 to £176.81.

The day-ahead power mark landed almost exactly. On 2 October day-ahead baseload was offered at £152.00 and settled at £151.95, 5p apart, the fourth session running within £2 of its settlement. This is the same index that missed by £35.50 in August, so it reads as a good run, not a reliable one. The forwards were close too: Nov-26 was shown at £153.72 and settled 78p lower, Jan-27 at £162.07 against £162.49, Q1-27 at £154.24 against £154.50 and Summer-27 at £107.50 against £107.98, while Winter-27, also shown at £107.50, settled £2.12 higher.

This morning the power curve is marked sharply higher. At 09:21 day-ahead baseload is offered at £171.50, £19.55 above its settlement, with Nov-26 at £159.10, Jan-27 at £169.00 and Q1-27 at £160.00, each between £5.50 and £6.51 higher. Summer-27 is marked at £109.00 and Winter-27 at £111.00. Commentary notes thin trading. The day-ahead move fits the forecast, with wind expected to fall sharply for 6 October and gas-for-power demand to rise with it.

The imbalance market settled 2 October with a maximum System Buy Price of £229.00 at 19:14 and a minimum System Sell Price of £55.36 at 14:14. The part-day row published here on 2 October read £221.59 at 07:18 and £123.28 at 03:48, so the maximum came in £7.41 higher in the evening peak and the minimum £67.92 lower in the afternoon. The 1 October maximum of £225.89 is now stamped 19:14 rather than 19:18, with the price unchanged.

The weekend was the softer side of the market. The 3 October maximum was £210.94 at 18:14 and the 4 October maximum £196.24 at 17:48, and on both days the minimum System Sell Price printed at £0.00, at 01:44 and 23:44. Today’s part-day row already reads £0.00 at 00:49 and £195.00 at 07:19, with most of the day still to come.

The wind forecast explains this morning’s price. Combined wind and solar output is forecast at about 11,200 MWh today, against a seasonal norm near 10,700, before falling to about 4,300 on 6 October, well under half the norm. Output then recovers quickly, back above the norm by 8 October and peaking near 15,700 on 10 October, before easing to about 11,200 by 12 October.

Temperatures are forecast at about 16°C today, against a mean near 12.4°C, and 15°C on 6 October, before dropping to around the mean on 7 October. The coolest day on the chart is 8 October, at about 10.8°C, more than a degree below normal, and 11 October is also slightly below. Commentary describes the latest 46-day forecast as broadly unchanged, with temperatures below seasonal norms from 7 October.

The nuclear outage table is unchanged from 2 October. Heysham 1 reactor 1 (610 MW) and Hartlepool 2 (620 MW) are both still listed on outages that were due to end on 29 September and 3 October, and the 112 MW reduction on Heysham 1 reactor 1, planned for 96 days, began on 3 October. Commentary points to French climate-related nuclear restrictions of about 12 TWh so far this year as support for continental and British power curves.

Oil, Carbon and Global Commodities

Brent settled at $102.25/barrel on 2 October, down 6 cents, holding above $100 for a second session. Sterling strengthened against the dollar to 1.3241 from 1.3199, so in sterling terms the barrel eased to about £77.22 from £77.51.

Carbon fell while gas priced in dollars rose. EUA Dec-26 lost €1.22 to €84.42 and UK ETS Dec-26 £1.21 to £60.98, with commentary linking the softer European price to the end of the compliance cycle. At 1.1760 the UK allowance is worth about €71.71, a discount of €12.71 to the European price, against €12.80 a session earlier and €17.72 at the 25 September close.

Asia’s LNG premium over Britain narrowed again. JKM rose to $25.68/MMBtu and NBP spot to $24.03, a gap of $1.65 against $1.94. TTF spot rose less, to $24.68, so Britain’s spot discount to the Dutch hub narrowed to $0.65 from $1.17. Henry Hub fell 10 cents to $2.90, and coal API2 Cal-27 edged up 17 cents to $137.18/tonne.

Commentary reports that crude exports from the Middle East rose above pre-conflict levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, according to shipping data, despite continued attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and that oil softened this morning as a result.

Storage and Supply Outlook

British storage rose for a second time, to 44% on the country map from 43%, and the weekend’s injections show clearly at site level. Stublach rose 15 points to 69%, Hill Top 14 points to 17% and Aldbrough 12 points to 45%. Hornsea and Humbly Grove each gained a point, to 72% and 2%, while the LNG tanks at South Hook fell three points to 72% and Isle of Grain two points to 39%. Dragon is at 33%, Holehouse Farm 70% and HolFord 75%, all unchanged, and Rough is still empty.

The continent kept filling too. France is at 84% from 81%, Spain 75% from 73%, Italy 87%, Germany 58% and the two overlapping Benelux labels at 59% and 62%. Britain is still the emptiest of the seven readings, and commentary puts European storage at about 72% full, well below a year earlier.

After five editions with none, the cargo schedule carries a British delivery: a US cargo due at South Hook on 9 October. In all, ten cargoes carrying about 949 mcm are due at northwest European terminals between today and 9 October: four at Gate, two at Eemshaven and one each at Fos, Montoir, Brunsbüttel and South Hook. Six come from the United States, two from Algeria, one from Trinidad and Tobago and one from Russia, the Montoir cargo due on 6 October.

Britain therefore starts the week with storage refilling quickly at the fast-cycle sites, Norwegian supply back near full rates and a British-bound LNG cargo on the schedule. Against that, the wind lull on 6 October will lean on gas-fired generation, and the forecast turns cooler from 7 October.

What This Means for Your Business

The reference points for this winter are Nov-26 at 188.10 p/therm and £152.94/MWh, and Q1-27 at 186.98 p/therm and £154.50/MWh. At wholesale that is about 6.4 p/kWh for gas and 15.3 to 15.5 p/kWh for power, before network costs, levies and supplier margin.

The week’s net move is what matters for a renewal. Against the 25 September close, Q1-27 is 5.30p higher on gas and £5.31 higher on power. A business that held off last week in the hope of further falls is now looking at dearer winter prices than were on offer then.

This morning also shows how fast the day-ahead can move on weather alone. The weekend’s imbalance prices fell to £0.00 at their lowest, yet with wind output forecast at well under half the seasonal norm on 6 October, day-ahead power is offered almost £20 higher. A business on a tariff that passes through day-ahead or imbalance prices carries that swing directly; a fixed contract does not.

January remains the dearest month of the winter. Jan-27 baseload at £162.49 is £11.36 above Dec-26, which makes the shape of your winter consumption worth checking when spreading a purchase across several dates.

Beyond this winter the curve is far cheaper but not standing still. Summer-27 gas is 5.72p higher on the week and Winter-27 baseload £3.27 higher. For contracts that run into 2027 and 2028, current business electricity rates still reflect a curve well below this winter’s.

The risks run both ways from here. Norwegian supply is near full rates, storage is refilling and a British-bound cargo is on the schedule, all of which weigh on prompt prices. Against that, British storage is still the lowest of the seven readings, the forecast turns cooler from 7 October and a wind lull on 6 October will lean on gas-fired generation.

If you want to know what these movements mean for your own contract dates and consumption profile, speak to one of our energy consultants today.

Previous report: UK Energy Market Report, 2 October 2026